This paper on "Risk Analysis of Landslides Using Fuzzy System Theory" was presented at the NAFEMS World Congress on Design, Simulation & Optimisation: Reliability & Applicability of Computational Methods - 9-11 April 1997, Stuttgart, Germany.

Abstract

Landslide represents one of the most complex geotechnical problem that can not be grasped totally by any conventional mathematical models. This is due to the diversity of factors affecting the stability of the slope. Factors such as variation of geological formations, hydrogeology, tectonic forces, vegetation, rainfall, erosion, temperature fluctuation, frost effects, ... etc. are difficult to include in safety analysis computation. Difficulties stem from the vague, incomplete and ambiguous terms and concepts concerning these parameters.
It is more rational to describe these factors in the manner of fuzzy logic mathematics. Presented in this paper is a new approach to estimate risk and safety of landslides employing methods of fuzzy quantification, synthetic fuzzy evaluation and approximate reasoning. This model embraces identification of the collapse modes and the associated fragilities, identifying the possible loading mechanisms and the uncertainty in the environment description, determining the system failures and specifying the safety measure. The application of the new approach will be illustrated with a numerical example.