A​bstract

This course delves into the realm of Simulation-Supported Engineering, with a specific focus on addressing variability using stochastic simulation. The course is structured into four parts.

1. Introduction, Overview, and Intellectual Foundation

   The first part provides a foundational understanding of engineering objectives, the importance of computer models, model verification, validation, and the representation of reality. It also introduces the Monte Carlo Simulation method, a key technique in stochastic simulation.

2. Randomization and Sampling

   The second section delves into the process of introducing variability into computer analysis models. It emphasizes the replacement of discrete inputs with ranges and distributions, and the significance of running the model multiple times with randomly changed variables.

3. Understanding Results

   This section concerns the interpretation of results obtained from simulations. This involves understanding the physics, topology, and structure of the data cloud resulting from simulations. The session also addresses various sources of variability in simulations and the importance of establishing tolerances for input and design variables.

4. Design Improvement and Summary

   The final part wraps up the course by discussing how to use the insights gained from simulations to improve design processes.

Gene Allen, Principal, Decision Incite

Mr. Allen retired from the Navy civil service in 2017 to pursue efforts to use emerging technologies to ensure future economic opportunity is broadly available. He has a specific focus on simulation-supported experiential learning to support workforce development. This is based on the results of establishing and managing collaborative R&D programs to use computers to conduct better engineering since 1987, including: the DARPA Initiative in Concurrent Engineering as Senator Byrd’s Economic Development and Defense Procurement Assistant, the NIST ATP co-funded Rapid Response Manufacturing Program as NCMS Director for Collaborative Development, and the DARPA co-funded Robust Design Computational System while with MSC Software. His book, Collaborative R&D – Manufacturing’s New Tool, co-authored with Rick Jarman, captures the methods and processes used to establish and execute successful collaborative efforts. Mr. Allen established Decision Incite in 2008 to broadly deploy stochastic simulation working with MSC Software, IBM, Engineous, and Ontonix. He returned to the Navy in 2009, where he established and led a team to capture the ship design process while at NSWC Carderock. In 2013 he took a position with the Ohio Replacement/Columbia Class SSBN Acquisition Program at NAVSEA to coordinate life-cycle application of the program’s Integrated Product Development Environment. Mr. Allen’s experience with workforce development is from training nuclear propulsion teams as the Reactor Training Assistant on USS ARKANSAS, CGN-41, after participating in construction, testing, and operations as a U.S. Naval officer.Mr. Allen has a degree in Nuclear Engineering from MIT. He is currently the President of the MIT Club of Washington.He retired from the Navy Reserve as a Commander in 1999. He co-owns a patent with Dr. Jacek Marczyk on using fuzzy cognitive maps to display Monte Carlo simulation results.